Bay Area leaders warn that traffic conditions could worsen, including on the Bay Bridge, if voters this November fail to pass two measures, according to a report released by the public policy think tank San Francisco Bay Area Planning and Urban Research Association (SPUR).
The study called “Bumper to Bumper” said drivers on the Bay Bridge, for example, would feel the impact of the failures of both measures, with traffic delays more than doubling during the peak hours, adding 33 minutes during the morning commute in the westbound direction and 43 minutes in the eastbound direction in the evening.
Other chokepoints drivers would face include at the Caldecott Tunnel on Highway 24, with trips that could increase by 20 minutes in the morning peak and an increase of 27 minutes in the evening peak. Highway 101 could also see trip times increase if Caltrain and BART decide to close low-ridership stations. The study said travel time through Burlingame would increase by 16 minutes during the morning peak and by 24 minutes during the evening peak.
SPUR has participated in working on both the parcel tax transit measure in San Francisco and the regional transit measure as a sponsor. The nonprofit hired Jacobs, an engineering and consulting firm that worked on the study.
City leaders on Tuesday echoed many of the study’s concerns about traffic delays and more drivers on highways if BART, Muni, and Caltrain are forced to make service cuts.
“The bottom line is that the failure of these measures would be devastating for communities and our economic recovery,” San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said.
Bay Area transit agencies face major budget deficits in the coming years. Leaders of the Bay Area’s top transit agencies have previously said they would have to cut service if the transit measures fail this fall.
The San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency faces a $307 million deficit and will need to rely on both the local parcel tax (Proposition H) and regional measure (Proposition RTM) to cover it. The transportation agency has said that if one or both measures fail, passengers could see cuts of up to 20 Muni service routes and reduced service on its light rail and rapid routes. The SFMTA has yet to share which Muni routes would be on the chopping block.
BART would face station closures, reduced service, and ending service early. Caltrain’s service would need to run hourly, weekend service would be eliminated, and weekday service would end earlier at 9 p.m.
“If these systems unravel, drivers will be spending an enormous amount of additional time on the road, stuck in traffic,” State Senator Scott Wiener said, who authored legislation to place the regional measure on the ballot.
Critics are skeptical about the regional measure that would increase the sales tax in five Bay Area counties for 14 years, including Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, San Francisco, and Santa Clara counties. The tax rate would increase by 1 percent in San Francisco and 0.5 percent in the other counties, generating about $1 billion annually for transit operations.
Marc Joffe, the president of the Contra Costa Taxpayers Association, the lead opposition to the regional measure, previously told The Voice that this was the “wrong time to ask for this kind of tax.”
Joffe has been advocating for another solution to fund Bay Area transit agencies by moving capital funding from large projects, such as the high-speed rail project. But proponents have said that capital funding for projects are locked in and cannot be used for operations. Joffe begs to differ. He pointed to the state legislature flexing capital funds for transit operations in 2023 as part of the state’s budget.
Ray Fields, BART chapter vice president of SEIU Local 1021, spoke about how the failure of the transit measures would affect the working class.
“If this measure fails, it’s people like us who will have to deal with the jam-packed Bay Bridge. We will have to deal with highways filled with even more cars. We will have to pay more out of our wallets to get to work, and that hurts all of us,” Fields said.
