“A new life awaits you in the off-world colonies. The chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity and adventure.”
That was the pitch aimed at denizens of a futuristic, mega-Los Angeles in the 1982 dystopian science-fiction film Blade Runner. It’s also a pitch that could be aimed at denizens of contemporary L.A., San Francisco, and San Jose, according to a new study that says relocating to another state makes it much more likely that former Californians can afford to own a home.
“Affordability plays a major role in Californians’ relocation decisions. Californians who leave move to much more affordable areas and see large increases in homeownership, on average,” according to Brett Fischer and Evan White, who wrote “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis,” from U.C. Berkeley’s California Policy Lab.
Not all movers are heading across state lines. Fischer and White note that of the Californians who have moved, 55–60 percent relocated within the same county; 22–25 percent relocated to another county in California; and 18–21 percent moved to another state. But that 18–21 percent is still a significant amount, and fewer people are moving into the state than in previous years.
An interesting facet of this is who is moving and why. If affordability is an issue, you might expect lower-income residents to be hitching up the U-Haul and heading to Idaho. But “those leaving are not typically from the state’s poorest communities. Instead, many come from relatively affluent neighborhoods but appear financially weaker than their neighbors,” say Fischer and White. This is backed up from a January 2026 report from the Public Policy Institute of California, which notes “California now experiences net losses among higher-income households as well as middle- and lower-income households. The number of higher-income households moving to California declined a bit during the pandemic, but the number leaving the state increased dramatically (from less than 150,000 in 2019 to almost 220,000 by 2021).”
Ex-Californians found it much easier to buy a home within a few years, with the likelihood increasing over time.
In this Darwinian winnowing of the state’s more affluent regions, the folks leaving have credit scores lower than their nonmoving neighbors, owe $5,500 more in student debt, have 16 percent higher rates of credit card use, and were 33 percent less likely to own a home. (In other words, by moving out of state they got their Blade Runner-promised “chance to begin again in a golden land of opportunity.”) As Fisher and White note, “All these signals are consistent with the idea that exiters desire a quality of life that they cannot achieve in their old neighborhood.”
These new lands of golden opportunity are mostly relatively close-by. Nevada is the largest net recipient of Californians. The Silver State is followed by Idaho, Oregon, and Arizona as relocation destinations. And no, Texas is not next; it only appears down in the 11th slot.
What do they find in their new states? According to the report, ex-Californians found it much easier to buy a home within a few years, with the likelihood increasing over time — after seven years, they were 48 percent more likely to become homeowners compared with people who stayed in California. Whether they rent or buy, the average relocatee ends up where monthly housing costs are $672 lower than their previous neighborhood. (The reverse is also true; people who moved into California found their housing costs about $664 higher each month.)
Whether the state can overcome its inertia and address its affordability and housing problems will depend on trends likely to play out over a long time. The land of Hollywood make-believe and Silicon Valley’s billionaire factories does not have a good track record in recent decades of taking care of the American Dream for the rest of the state.
And it will continue to pay a price. From 2010 to 2024, nearly 10 million people moved out of California, while a little more than 7 million moved into the state.
The ongoing population loss might make some people think it will relieve the Golden State’s housing crunch, but that doesn’t take into account the true depth of California’s housing shortage; also they can expect already high taxes to go even higher or state services to go even lower. People seeking affordability are leaving; we are also seeing fewer people move into California since 2019. As the report notes, “If trends continue, the implications for California’s tax base and national political clout could be severe. For example, after losing one congressional seat in 2021, California is on track to lose three to four seats in Congress after the 2030 Census.”
