Democrats across the nation had their first good night in a year this past Tuesday when their candidates and issues romped to victory. Gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey, the flipping of some state-level offices, and the resounding victory of Proposition 50 in California have done a great deal to excite Democrats who have been stunned by their near-total loss of federal power a year ago.
One of the victories that was irresistibly sexy to journalists belonged to New York City’s mayor-elect, Zohran Mamdani, a proud socialist. Editors nationwide have topped a lot of stories with headlines based on the assumption that Mamdani is a national harbinger of the Democrats’ future: “Here’s what Mamdani’s NYC mayoral win, and the rise of a democratic socialist, could mean for Democrats nationwide” (CBS News); “What does Mamdani’s win mean for the future of the Democratic Party?” (Al Jazeera).
The answer is, not much, at least if the implication is “As New York City goes, so goes the nation.” New York City is a very blue city (aside from the mayoral terms of Rudy Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg); though a socialist did raise eyebrows, it’s not like Mamdani can get elected mayor of Houston or Miami.
Moderate Democrat and former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger’s victory in Virginia shouldn’t raise eyebrows; Virginia traditionally selects a candidate from the party not in the White House. But she won by a landslide, as did Democrat Mikie Sherrill, New Jersey’s new governor-elect. A landslide is generally defined as winning by a margin of 10 percentage points or more; Spanberger walloped her GOP opponent with a nearly 15-point margin. Democrats added 10 seats to their Virginia House of Delegates majority. Even the Virginia attorney general election went the Democrats’ way, with Jay Jones winning by about six points despite a “violent text messages” scandal.
Not only did Newsom pull off a win, he did what a leader does: Convince his electorate to do something they wouldn’t have done otherwise.
So the question about meaning shouldn’t be about Mamdani’s election but about all of the wins, and therein lies good news for pretty much everyone who is a member of or is sympathetic to the Democratic Party. It shows if you run a strong candidate who is a match for his or her electorate — and, of course, if you do it in a year in which the political winds are at your back — Democrats can win. Winning in blue areas is easy; winning in purple areas is a sign of strength. Candidates should “fit the district standard,” in the words of former Chicago mayor and Obama chief of staff Rahm Emanuel.
In other elections with less visibility but perhaps more indicative of how the Democrats’ fortunes have changed, the party flipped a couple seats on the Georgia Public Service Commission.
For the Republicans, Mamdani’s win means they’re going to try to make people think he is the present and future of the Democratic Party. President Trump, never one to pass by a useful hyperbole, has sought to portray Mamdani’s victory as heralding the coming of communism in our times. Democrats are of course licking their chops at what they think is increasingly looking like a “wave election” in 2026 midterms.
And then there’s another election you might have heard about: California’s Proposition 50, which suspends the state’s redistricting commission and returns redistricting — allegedly temporarily, but people have doubts — to the political world. The referendum was not given high chances for passage when it was first announced; polling gave it barely more than 50 percent approval, and approval usually goes down during a campaign under the weight of opposition ads. But Proposition 50 support increased, winning by a margin of about 27 points; not exactly a nail-biter. Let’s call it a super-landslide.
The goal is for California to flip up to 5 House of Representatives seats to Democrats, in retaliation for Texas lawmakers rejiggering their maps to do the opposite. But the big winner, clearly, is Gov. Gavin Newsom, who took a gamble with the measure.
Not only did Newsom pull off a win, he did what a leader does: He convinced his electorate to do something they wouldn’t have done otherwise. And the frosting on top of Newsom’s cupcake is that he amassed a lot of money — and a national voter contact base — thanks to the millions of dollars that flowed into the proposition campaign.
So get ready for more headlines such as “Newsom leaps to head of 2028 White House race.” There’s still reason to doubt that Newsom “sells well” in purple states, but he read the political moment, took a chance, and won big. He’s more likely to be the nominee than Mamdani.
