San Francisco heads into a pivotal election year in which recent policy battles will drive high-stakes races and possibly reshape the city’s political establishment. Candidates will be rewarded or punished for their positions on upzoning and fiscal governance as progressives try to reclaim a majority on the Board of Supervisors and push policy and spending measures. At the same time, moderates will run on their records and bureaucracy-reform measures. The tension comes to a head quickly with a contentious June primary. Here’s an overview; subsequent parts of this series will cover the races in more detail.
Top tickets: Races for Congress and governor
Gavin Newsom’s exit has opened a 10-way governor’s race with no clear frontrunner and many voters still undecided. Recent polls show modest shifts from Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter toward Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco amid a fracas over Porter’s temperament. However, a later survey still had Porter leading a fragmented field that includes Javier Becerra, Steve Hilton, and Bianco. The recent entry of East Bay Representative Eric Swalwell, a veteran of the Trump impeachment fight, has somewhat upended the race in the most recent survey. A large majority of voters are still undecided. Jason McDaniel, associate professor of political science at San Francisco State University, told The Voice in an interview that “there’s probably going to be a lot of pressure” on lower-polling Democrats like Biden cabinet member Becerra to drop out of the race, as well as to see how damaged Porter is by early attacks.
Billionaire Tom Steyer has made a big splash in the media. Still, not so much in the polls — indeed, some argue that his recent high-profile ad campaign for Proposition 50, which changed the state’s district maps to counter alleged gerrymandering in Republican states, may have actually blown up in his face.
Meanwhile, local contests for Assembly seats appear quiet, with no challengers so far to incumbents Matt Haney and Catherine Stefani.
The race to represent most of San Francisco in Congress is the main event of this “jungle” primary; the top two vote-getters compete again in November. Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi has announced her retirement in 2027. Her daughter Christine Pelosi, generally considered the preferred successor, has instead decided to “forge her own path” by running for the state Senate District 11 seat, either in 2028 or in any special election should the current holder, Scott Wiener, who happens to be running to succeed Nancy Pelosi, win that race.
That leaves a relatively straightforward race between Wiener and the appointed progressive spear-carrier, District 1 Supervisor Connie Chan. A third candidate is Saikat Chakrabarti, a former tech executive and chief of staff for Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Chakrabarti promises to fund his own campaign and is running on a progressive platform. Still, in San Francisco, progressives are an establishment bloc, and their power brokers have already sidled behind Chan.
Chan already has the endorsement of the progressive faction’s elected and former elected leaders, including Supervisors Shamann Walton, Chyanne Chen, and Jackie Fielder; former Mayor Art Agnos; and, perhaps surprisingly, former Mayor Willie Brown. The conventional wisdom is that Representative Pelosi will also endorse Chan, which makes her the candidate to beat, despite her reputation as a reflexively oppositional voice at City Hall who then takes credit for others’ initiatives, sometimes after voting against them.
The question is what weight this will carry when combined with the hyperlocal issues in the election season. Foremost among those is the struggle over upzoning the city, which continues despite the passage of Lurie’s Family Zoning Plan.
Meanwhile, Wiener has secured support from Sacramento-based leaders, including state officials such as Attornet Gen. Rob Bonta and Treasurer Fiona Ma. He’s also endorsed by moderates at City Hall like Supervisors Danny Sauter and Matt Dorsey, as well as swing vote Supervisors Rafael Mandelman and Myrna Melgar. At this point, we’re also hearing that he has a better chance of winning the state Democratic Party endorsement.
The question is what weight this will carry when combined with the hyperlocal issues in the election season. Foremost among those is the struggle over upzoning the city, which will likely continue despite the passage of Lurie’s Family Zoning Plan.
Wiener is the darling of YIMBY pro-housing activists for his work in Sacramento, but that same work alienates him from many west-side voters, whom he must reach out to and win over. Conservatives and moderates are also irked by his work on criminal justice changes, such as repealing sentence enhancements and mandatory minimums for drug offenses.
Chan seeks to win over NIMBYs citywide by doggedly opposing upzoning. Still, a guaranteed slice of them leans moderate and conservative and could be repelled by her fiscal and public safety record. She will deflect those attacks by highlighting her tenure as budget chair, during which she worked to fund legislation, such as making certain fees and licenses for small businesses free in their first year. There’s also the issue of taking credit for others’ work, as mentioned above. That, and hopes for higher voter turnout in a nationally consequential election, work to her advantage, as they did in her reelection campaign.
Supervisors and school board: Jungle primaries for everyone (sort of)
But the congressional election is not the only multi-race gauntlet this year. Two of the even-numbered supervisorial seats must be fought for twice this year as District 2 seat-holder Stephen Sherrill was appointed by Mayor London Breed last year to replace Stefani, and former City College Trustee Alan Wong was recently appointed by Mayor Daniel Lurie to inherit the political omnishambles that is District 4. Both support upzoning, both have Lurie’s support, and both are targeted by progressives.
Sherrill has already tallied significant endorsements from colleagues and constituents, but even after working successfully to soften the effects of the Family Zoning Plan on parts of his district, Safeway and partner Align Real Estate turned around and handed him a not-so-solid by parachuting in a plan to redevelop the storied Marina supermarket into a 25-story complex with a new store and 790 apartments using state law before the new local limits to Family Zoning — bargained for by Sherrill — could effect.
Sherrill’s leading opponent is Lori Brooke, longtime president of the Cow Hollow Association and, most recently, the leader of the fight against upzoning. Her campaign could well run in parallel with a ballot initiative to undo the Family Zoning Plan. While it will aim to reflect the district’s moderate sentiments, it will also be supported by progressives. Much like progressive leader Aaron Peskin when he was supervisor, Brooke will seek to shape a hybrid constituency that cares more about fighting development than anything else. But can it be a winning coalition these days? A poll by the moderate group GrowSF showed around 70 percent support for Family Zoning in District 2.
Meanwhile, in the Sunset, Wong still has to define himself as a neighborhood hero — his swearing-in event at his alma mater, Lincoln High School, was a good start. But ducking out on the second reading of the Family Zoning Vote last week, apparently for a medical appointment, wasn’t a good look. His leading opponent is Natalie Gee, currently chief of staff to progressive Supervisor Shamann Walton and a veteran community organizer with strong labor ties. As a candidate, Gee is the same proven model as previous labor-backed west-side reps, such as Gordon Mar in District 4 and Sandra Fewer and Connie Chan in District 1, and is already being showcased by progressive-aligned media.
Yet another special election in the primary must be endured by Board of Education member Phil Kim. Breed appointed him to replace Lainie Motamedi, who had been appointed after three members of the school board were recalled in 2022. She won an election in her own right but resigned in frustration over district leadership. If you are following The Voice’s coverage, you will know that, after Motamedi resigned and the fellow post-recall appointed member, Ann Hsu, lost her election, the body appears to have reverted to dysfunction.
Kim currently faces four other candidates, including two progressive operatives, Deldep Medina and Brandee Marckmann. What role they play in ranked-choice voting, as well as many voters treating the Board of Education as a down-ballot race where endorsements matter more than anything else, may count in Kim’s favor.
Even if all three incumbents win, they will face re-election in November.
A change for the local bench?
Twenty-two Superior Court judges, including a former progressive member of the Board of Supervisors, Gerardo Sandoval, are up for election in the June primary. They won’t show up on the ballot unless members of the bar decide to challenge them, one-for-one.
While Mayor Lurie and others continue to tout lower crime numbers, many residents continue to have concerns about the nexus of drug addiction, homelessness, and persistent petty crime that continue to blight downtown, as well as violent and other unreported crimes directed at vulnerable populations like Asian seniors. Itinerant recidivists like Bill Gene Hobbs continue to attract public attention, demonstrating failures in a criminal justice system afflicted by flawed state laws and a seemingly oblivious local judiciary.
Judicial retention elections offer a way to chip away at the problem and pressure the bench for change, but finding credible candidates and funding them is especially challenging.
Next time: the supervisorial gauntlets, in detail.
12/17: This article has been updated.