It looks like the Nov. 5, 2024 election will be a mixed bag for San Francisco. Preliminary results show that the business-backed centrist coalition will likely make further gains on the Board of Supervisors and Board of Education and one gain on the Community College Board. However, the same cannot be said concerning ballot measures. While a swell may have won the mayor’s race, progressives might still be able to deem that at least a partial victory. Meanwhile, the national results should probably prompt a reconsideration of San Francisco’s outsized influence in the Democratic Party.
Results reporting
The Department of Elections released its first results of mail ballots received before Election Day shortly after 8:45 p.m. Tuesday, with final reports for that day’s count, including ballots cast in-person at polling places, announced shortly before 12:30 p.m. the following afternoon. As of 4 p.m. Thursday, there are approximately 143,000 ballots left to count. The department aims to certify the election by Dec. 5.
Director of Elections John Arntz provided in-person reports to a small group of reporters and observers at City Hall’s North Light Court late Tuesday night. He noted that department staff, including himself, would continue working into the early morning.
“Be nice to us,” an already red-eyed Arntz joked to reporters at the 10:45 p.m. report.
A new, untried mayor
Levi Strauss heir and social entrepreneur Daniel Lurie has been declared the winner after 14 elimination rounds of ranked-choice voting; Lurie has 56.2 percent and incumbent London Breed has 43.8 percent after 14 elimination rounds. Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, standard-bearer of the progressives and a presumed dark horse, was eliminated in the 13th elimination round at 21.6 percent. Former interim mayor Mark Farrell was eliminated in round 12 with 18.5 percent.
Farrell’s campaign saw the writing on the wall by 9:30 p.m. Tuesday, with staff telling reporters at the candidate’s election night party at Campus on Chestnut Street in the Marina, “It’s going to be tough.” Farrell later arrived and conceded, urging supporters to “get behind” whoever the next mayor is.
The mayor’s race may well be surprising in other ways. Lurie is an untried candidate who was largely self-funded and, as our reporting has pointed out, has strong ties to San Francisco’s left-leaning nonprofit-dominated progressive establishment. So, despite progressives wailing all during the election cycle about billionaires throwing their weighty wealth and connections around, perhaps all they had to do to salvage a victory for themselves in this race was to enlist a multimillionaire of their own.
Second shift for supervisors?
Meanwhile, the chambers on the other side of City Hall’s second floor will likely see a further move toward a center (or center-right) consensus, depending on your point of view.
In District 1, Marjan Philhour faces, in her own words, “deja vu,” as she and incumbent Connie Chan each have 50 percent of the vote after three rounds of ranked-choice eliminations. It shouldn’t take much more time to see if the demographic shift from redistricting and political changes spurred on by recent events makes the third run the charm for Philhour.
Danny Sauter appears to have won won District 3. Amazingly, in District 5, Bilal Mahmood has a lead over incumbent Dean Preston, the most left-leaning supervisor; should we expect that to last? In District 11, Michael Lai has a close lead over progressive Chyanne Chen. Should all of them hold, centrists get a six-vote majority on the board, not even counting who is appointed to succeed Catherine Stefani in District 2, who is headed to Sacramento. But that is a very ideal scenario.
On the Board of Education, which has presided over multiple enervating controversies and an existential fiscal crisis, the outcome seems more evident as the lone incumbent in the race for four of the seven seats on that body, Matt Alexander, is edged out. Another centrist, Luis Zamora, looks to ascend to the City College Board of Trustees.
Stuck with commissioners for now
If there are any victories for progressives in this election, they are likely in the 15 local propositions, which, together with 10 state measures, made for an arduous ballot. One of the critical kernels of the business-backed centrists, Proposition D, which would have slashed and burned the city’s commission system, looks to crash and burn with only 45 percent of the vote so far. Peskin’s competing measure, Proposition E, which creates a task force to look into which bodies to burn, if at all, looks set to pass. That said, this also paves the way for consideration of an alternative charter reform plan proffered by the San Francisco Planning and Urban Research organization.
Peskin’s inspector general Proposition C measure also looks to pass, and Proposition F, a deferred pension plan for police officers who stay on the job past retirement, is failing. Proposition K, the measure to close car traffic on the Great Highway, looks to pass with the current numbers, however, precinct maps generated by the Chronicle indicate a sharp divide across the city. Prop. L, a business surtax on rideshares and robotaxis to fund Muni has a strong lead, but that will likely be zeroed out by the one major centrist win among the measures, Proposition M, which aims to reform all business taxes; at last count it was leading by almost 70 percent.
The bigger picture
Donald Trump won a second, nonconsecutive term as president last night, possibly also including the popular vote, even after increasing public concern over his increasingly extraordinary behavior, including at a final campaign rally that included racial slurs, profanity, and other outrageous statements, framing the once and future president as some sort of national id.
This demands a self-examination by the Democratic Party and its institutional supporters. Many Americans chose the id over appeals to competence and integrity, which went over like weak tea in the face of reflexive fears over the cost of living, social disorder, and generational displacement.
Congress, states, and cities, including San Francisco, will have to support the guardrails in the federal government and American institutions even more. And San Francisco Democrats, including our own Gov. Gavin Newsom, will have to reexamine the legacy of fad policies that led Jeane Kirkpatrick early on to coin the derisive moniker “San Francisco Democrat” — before it becomes a meme.
Updated Nov. 7 at 4:45 p.m.
