San Francisco transit planners are preparing for an influx of new residents, given the state mandate for the city to add 82,000 housing units by 2031, which could lead to more crowded Muni trains.
To prepare, the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency is studying ways to increase capacity in the Muni Metro subway system and address the subway’s aging infrastructure over the next 10 to 15 years. Called the Muni Metro Capacity Study, a community working group has been underway since 2023 for transit planners to solicit feedback on ideas to improve subway service and allow for more riders in the subway when more people decide to move to the city.
“There is certainly some uncertainty about when exactly that growth will happen, but we do want to be prepared in understanding what we might need in terms of transit to accommodate that growth,” said Liz Brisson, a SFMTA transit planning manager who is leading the study.
Despite recent budget discussions about the agency’s financial situation and the SFMTA board voting recently to cut some Muni service this summer, Brisson said this was a good time to do the study because of a grant that could take four to six years from the time to apply and receive the grant. The agency is eyeing a core capacity grant from the Federal Transit Administration that can fund light rail projects that will experience overcrowding in the next 10 years.
“It can fund up to 80 percent of the project cost, and some of the recent awards have topped a billion dollars,” said Brisson. “It’s really perfect for a system like ours that needs to both improve capacity and fix aging infrastructure at the same time.”
The working group has been toying with several ideas, including three-car trains on the N-Judah and M-Ocean View (West Portal station to San Francisco State University). Brisson said it would add 50 percent more capacity to each train.
To accommodate capacity needs, the agency may need to upgrade traction power stations for three-car trains and replace the rail and overhead contact system.
Another controversial idea is to restructure the rail system. One example of that was when the SFMTA temporarily did not allow the J-Church trains to enter the subway at the Duboce portal during the pandemic. The idea was to replace the slot of the J-Church in the subway with a rail line that has a two-car capacity. Another route restructuring that has been discussed before was interlining the K-Ingleside and L-Taraval.
Despite the added capacity to the subway, the idea of a route change could lead to a trade-off for some Muni subway riders who may have to make a transfer when traveling downtown. This caused concerns for riders of the J-Church when transit officials desired to keep the J-Church out of the subway, but the agency ultimately decided to keep it in the subway.
“If we did pursue that in the future, it would really be if we see a significant increase in ridership or significant declines in our subway performance, and would be accompanied by significant community outreach with the community members that would be affected,” said Brisson.
The study is also examining rail service improvements for a more reliable transit ride, including adding transit priority lanes and traffic signal exemptions on parts of the subway, particularly on the street level, where these elements are not implemented.
Brisson said the agency is working now to release a draft of recommendations to the public by this summer to receive feedback and then bring back final recommendations to the SFMTA board for approval sometime in the fall.
