San Francisco officials received a bleak outlook at Caltrain’s future that includes the possibility of service cuts that would start in the fiscal year of 2028.
Caltrain officials presented a financial update to the San Francisco County Transportation Authority board last Tuesday that outlines what the transit agency would have to do if voters do not pass this November’s regional transit ballot measure. Several other Bay Area transit systems, including BART and Muni, have already shared some of their plans if the transit measures fail at the ballot.
Service cuts on Caltrain could include reducing the frequency on weekdays to hourly service, weekday service would end at 9 p.m., and weekend service would be cut entirely. There would also be station closures, and Caltrain would eliminate special event train service,
Caltrain Executive Director Michelle Bouchard outlined to the board how important the transit system is to San Francisco and the rest of the Bay Area region:
… Caltrain is not only the customers that we serve; it’s also the communities through which we operate, and the benefits of this regional railroad accrue not only to San Francisco but to the entire region that we serve,” Bouchard said. “Whether you’re riding the train or not, we are carrying three lanes of traffic on 101 on a daily basis, and that helps anybody who might be trying to traverse 101 or 280 during the morning.
The transit agency is facing an average annual deficit of a $75 million starting fiscal year 2028, despite the transit system having ridership growth post-pandemic, especially after electrifying its trains in 2024. Wait times have also improved during weekday peak times and on weekends. Still, ridership and fare revenue have not fully recovered.
Devon Ryan, with Caltrain’s government affairs, said 72 percent of the transit agency’s revenue came from fares before the pandemic. In the post-pandemic era, approximately 30 percent of Caltrain’s revenue stream is fare revenue.
“What ended up happening with the pandemic is our ridership went from basically almost over 100 percent capacity to 2 percent overnight, and it stayed that way for a long time,” Ryan said.
Caltrain is recovering with ridership levels at 71 percent of pre-pandemic levels, but Ryan added that there had been “systemic changes” since the pandemic, including working at home and people who are now used to driving more often.
The transit system is looking at other revenue sources, including allowing people to pay for chartering private trains to special events, advertising, and naming rights with train wraps or on other Caltrain property, but officials said that still will not cover the transit agency’s future deficit.
District 10 Supervisor Shamann Walton, who sits on the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers board representing the city, said, “I think we all understand the importance of Caltrain to the region and the importance of ensuring that the November ballot measures do get passed.”
He added, “Otherwise, service reductions, cost increases, organizational shrinkage-all of these things will most certainly occur, which is very problematic for not only Caltrain but for the entire region.”
Proponents of the regional transit measure recently released new polling from EMC research, which showed that 54 percent of likely voters in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, San Francisco, and Santa Clara counties would vote to approve the measure. A total of 1,700 likely voters were polled last month across the five counties where the ballot measure will appear before voters.
If passed by voters, the measure would increase the sales tax in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties by 0.5 percent and 1 percent in San Francisco to fund Bay Area transit operations.
